source: afraidtotrade.com
S&P 500 Weekly:
First:
"intra-month low is currently 805, which takes us beneath the closing low of the entirety of the 2000-2003 bear market. That monthly closing low was 815... Look to see if we end November above or below 815. Also, look to see if we breach the absolute price low of the prior bear market at 775."
Second:
"the momentum oscillator - the difference in a 3 and 10 month EMA - (a standard MACD) is registering a significant new momentum low at -200. That means that there is a -200 point spread between the 3 and 10 monthly EMAs - that’s huge and sets a record price (indicator) low."
Third:
"...The orientation of the 20 and 50 month exponential moving averages - they have formed a bear (some say “death”) cross. I want to make two sub-points here. First, that is a sign of major bearishness, as price has moved a great distance to have the shorter 20 month EMA cross beneath the longer 50 month EMA. Interestingly enough, moving average systems are triggering fresh ’short-sell’ positions, but moving average systems far lag the price and I find little to no value using them on long-term charts - that’s my opinion though."
"...the last time the 20 month EMA crossed beneath the 50 month EMA was roughly mid-2002, about 6 or so months prior to the absolute bottom in the market. If you absolutely want to find bullish news in all this, there it is. Moving averages lag price - sometimes by a good deal - and the last time this structure set-up, we were near a bottom. Of course, price moved from 1,050 to 800 before the bottom was found (after the bear or ‘death’ cross) but eventually the bottom formed."
