Monday, April 6, 2009

Daily Review

Today i found it particularly confusing to trade..maybe i shouldn't have traded at all. I was constantly bothered by a head cold and customers called in at the most inconvenient times. But anyway, I got my ass handed to me in the morning, but I was able to fight back before close to have lost only in commissions. I will never attempt to blame others for my failed trades, because I had made the decision to enter those positions. I let my losers settle, and that's why I never gave up in myself and fought back at the end by trading FAS aggressively.

So let's review a trade that I suffered:

Long JASO

bought: 3.47, 3.50, 3.49
sold: 3.43
lost avg. 0.06ish

Reasons for buying:
  • heard on Twitter that solars are again in the play
  • LDK, which I had had success with previously has already made the move
  • FSLR, considered leader of solar stocks is also pushing forward strong
  • other solars SOLR, SOLF, were weaker but I didn't really care
  • market SPY was weak, but financials XLF was hanging in there...I also know that when the solars run, they run without the market.
  • I had already missed the run in LDK, etc..so I thought I'd pick a laggard and just went with it.
  • I also liked the daily chart of JASO, which was consolidating in low volume after a hugh run on high volume.
  • I added (avg. up) on strength of price action (higher low) and strong volume coming in (momentum). That was around 10:30ish?
Reasons for selling:
  • Right after entering the position, my senses came screaming to me that there is a reason why LDK is weaker relative to other solars: it was stuck under multiple ma's on my intermediate timeframe (20min)..and that there were many resistant levels and consolidations from prior days.
  • Even though I knew that these solars have tendency to rocket through multiple resistances with ease, but I was getting nervous after it failed to sustain momentum after it pop past yesterday's close with such a strong volume. It popped to 3.54, but put in a wick. Price then put in another wick at this level.
  • Someone must had gotten nervous and put in a huge market sell order and JASO got rocked.
  • My plan for a fast breakout has failed. I exited partial position on bounce hoping the other half will recover for a breakeven. Price never showed any strength and I didn't want to baby sit this for a whole day, so I had to pull the trigger to get out the other half at the same price level.
Lessons learnt:
  • never enter any position base on excitement: only beginners do that
  • always obey resistances and find reasons why you shouldn't be in a trade.
  • never chase a stock, even it has momentum. Wait for pull back at least.
  • overall, I got too exited and wanted action.
Things I did right:
  • I followed my plan (eventhough the plan was flawed). I exited the position because the momentum dried out.
  • I kept the losses small
  • I didn't dwell on this failure and moved on.

No comments: