Thursday, March 10, 2011

AEM - DOWN TREND CONTINUATION TRADE

DAILY

5-MIN

1-MIN
WHAT WAS THE PLAY:

  • DOWN-TREND CONTINUATION
  • Price breaks major support on Daily
  • Market overall was weak and SPY broke down from wedge consolidation on daily creating a weak overall market
  • I knew I shouldn't be chasing the initial down move (good)
  • I waited for price to retrace to a level and show weakness (good)
  • price battled/TIGHTLY consolidated around vwap, wicks above the consolidation showing seller.
  • I missed the short on the initial break down of the consolidation but got in on the small retracement on of the break.
  • Price BREAKS uptrend; BREAKS vwap
  • The Risk perimeter was CLEAR at less than 20 cents and REWARD WAS PLANTY at around $1. 

WHAT I DID RIGHT:

  • I know exactly how much I'm committed to lose. Most at 20 cents. / $60  With that I calculated how many shares I'd trade to stay in with my risk perimeter. 300 shares 
  • The risk vs reward distance was 1 to 5.
  • I scaled out as planned to lessen risk 
  • I let at least the last 1/3 run to my target which is the longer term level and also via ATR of last 5 days of $2.
  • I let the last lot run and covered near my target. 
  • I didn't let the market drive the trade, I let the STOCK, AEM, dictate where it wants to go.

WHAT NEEDS IMPROVEMENT:

  • I should have risked more $100 or 500 shares. since it a morning more which has more conviction
  • I was too cautious by getting out too soon. I mean the first exit didn't indicate that it's going to reverse.
  • The first scale out was completely out of "fear of loss" which should be avoided at all costs. It limits profits!!! BE BOLD, STAY WITH THE PLAY. I mean if I had scaled out 200 shares at the second out, I'd be up 42 cents x 2 and leaving the last lot to stop out at the original target would have netted me a profit if the last lot didn't work out. So that would have been the right play.
  • The final exit didn't show that it's reversing either. THERE WAS NO CLIMAX OF VOLUME/FLUSH. FLUSH CAME TO 64.80! NO BOTTOM WICKS WITH HUGE VOLUME MEANS NO COVERING


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