Friday, July 1, 2011

Your job as an independent trader is to watch, analyze, wait, continue to watch, continue to wait, and finally execute on the pattern(s) that you have learned to have a high probability of being successful on a consistent basis. Your job is to look for that reoccurring high probability pattern and decide whether to deploy your capital or stand-down. That is your job. You are not a macro-economist. You are not an equity analyst with a global hedge fund. You are an independent trader trying to grow your ball of equity, while managing risk. - Bella, SMB

Source: http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/want-to-make-it-as-a-trader

trading is “blue collar” work.  If you want to succeed at this game, put on your hard hat, load up your tool-belt and be ready to work when you get to your computer station.

What should set you apart from other traders is not your ability to dissect financial statements or conduct some ostentatious analysis on company valuations and the disconnect between market prices.   No, it is (or should be) your superb pattern recognition skills that allow you to identify, wait, watch, and execute your profitable trades.

Learn the patterns. Watch for the patterns. Execute once the pattern develops. Exit quickly if the pattern fails to develop.   You are a pattern follower and risk manager.

Ask yourself a question: do I have the mental capacity to watch for a developing pattern multiple hours a day in order to make my trading decision?  Am I willing to do nothing (in terms of executing trades) while I wait for the pattern to emerge?  Many traders simply don’t have the desire or luxury (due to financial constraints/obligations) to spend hours on end watching repetitive patterns develop and determine which setups suit their temperament and trading style.

This is the learning process. If one does not have time or is willing to put in the time to go through this process, failure is inevitable.  Hence that often quoted stat of the 80% failure rate in this game.  I often recall some of my earlier mentors talk about “all you need is more screen time”. Initially I did not understand what this meant —- I know now.  It’s all about using that screen time to look for and watch the outcome of those repetitive patterns  develop over and over again, on a daily basis.  Eventually it should become mind-numbing boring work. As the saying goes, “same stuff,  different day”. In reality a trader’s process is no different  than the lady working in the social security administration office processing  social security checks or the guy on the automotive assembly line:  Same routine,  same pattern, everyday.

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